Infos zur ToSoFi am 1. August 2008

Der Bericht ueber die erfolgreiche Reise ist hier zu finden!

mehr Links!

Poehali maps fuer Yiwu und Urumqi!

The road to success ...? Scale: 1 grid = 1 degree = 111 km in latitude
Marks on the central line: minutes after 11:00 UTC - und so sieht die Topografie aus! Es gibt auch aeltere Karten ...

Das aktuelle Satellitenbild der SoFi-Zone und noch eins! Und noch mehr Wetter-Links

Webseiten

SoFi: eine chinesische Homepage der SoFi (auf Englisch) und das Eclipse Bulletin

Anderson berichtet aus Hami!

Zahlreiche Karten von Williams + erste Grafiken von Espenak (auch 2009/10) + GoogleEarth

Wetterdaten & Karten von Anderson (besonders diese);
Xubier's map collection und Weizixia (Wetter-Plot)

Klimakarten von Barentsen (eher fragwürdig; siehe Kommentar unten vom 13.4.06)

China & Xinjiang: Visa-Bestimmungen (offizielle Seite) - Visum-Centrale

Fremdenverkehrsamt der VR China - Homepage in Deutschland

Science and Technology Society (chapter 31)

China mit dem Rucksack - 2008

GloboSapiens China Reports / TravelBlog Xinjiang / WikiTravel Xinjiang / Virtual Tourist Xinjiang

China A-Z (insbes. Xinjiang) und Virtual Tourist-Xinjiang-Front; Urumqi (observatory and sat pic of it plus other impressions), Train travel in China

Xinjiang travel blogs und Reiseberichte aus Xinjiang in der NYT, einem Reisebuero-Newsletter, aus der Wueste, bei den noch Kasachen und aus sibirischer Sicht - und seven things to do.

Xinjiang Blog / Zentralasiatische Turkologie-Links aus Bonn - Turfanforschung Berlin

Falls Anreise via Beijing & weiter mit dem Zug: Fahrplan Beijing - Hami.

Die 'stans: Discovery Central Asia, EurAsiaNet, RegiStan - und UNESCO Central Asia Cluster

Der Zustand der Grenzuebergaenge, der Zug Almaty - Urumqi (mehr, eine Beschreibung und Details), die GUS-Bahnauskunft, die Deutsche Allgemeine Zeitung aus Kasachstan - und 10 Gruende fuer die Seidenstrasse (von denen einer die SoFi ist).

Kasachstan: Laenderinfo, LP World Guide, Reisen in K., Artikel von 2006, Almaty-Billighotels, Tian Shan Astronomical Observatory (Bericht!), South Kazakhstan, wie es in Baikonur dieser Tage zugeht (auch von AFP), was der Spass kostet (Tarife aus Deutschland und Kasachstan), ob eine Latinisierung der Schrift kommen soll - und warum Borat nicht der typische Kasache ist ...

Kirgistan: die Probleme mit dem Torugart-Pass.

(Eine unbezahlbare Alternative: aus der Luft auf einem Flug von Koeln nach Duesseldorf .)


News zu dieser SoFi (und den Schauplätzen)

Thorntree Thread zur Lage in Xinjiang.

[18.8.2008] "Wo Olympia fern ist" - in Chinas westlichster Stadt Kashgar sind die Spiele in Peking so weit weg wie eine Reise zum Mond: SPIEGEL. Auch: Handelsblatt, TAZ, Welt.

[21.7.2008] "Tote bei Explosionen in Linienbussen" - die Vorfaelle duerften vermutlich zu einer weiteren Verschaerfung der Sicherheitsvorkehrungen im Vorfeld der Olympischen Spiele in China fuehren: AFP. Auch: NZZ mit einer (positiv gestimmten!) Reportage aus Urumqi und mehr!

[18.7.2008] "Russia set for total sun eclipse" - the next total solar eclipses will occur in Northern America in 2017 (so, so ... :-): Russia Today. Auch: Novosti, Space Disco, Nunatsiaq News.

[17.7.2008] "China: Sicherheitsparanoia vor Olympia" - Ausländer erhalten kaum noch Einreisevisa: Die Presse. Auch: TT, BILD, Focus, NZZ.

[16.7.2008] "August 1st's Eastern Solar Eclipse" - more than a billion people get to see a bite taken out of the Sun that day: Sky & Telescope.

[15.7.2008] "Im Viel-Voelker-Staat gaert es" - in der Region Xinjiang scheint die Lage besonders angespannt: ZDF. Auch EMFIS ueber Oel in Xinjiang und AP zu Kontrollen bei Beijing - und Space.com zu SoFi-Grundlagen.

[14.7.2008] "Astronomers warn northerners against sungazing during eclipse" in Kanada in der partiellen Zone: CBC.

[13.7.2008] "Ueberleben in Peking" - die wichtigsten Informationen, die den Peking-Trip erleichtern: Stern. Auch: ChinaOdysseyTours-Werbung.

[12.7.2008] "Great Xinjiang Eclipse: T-minus 20 days" - many eclipse buffs are heading to the tiny town of Yiwu: NW China Blog.

[11.7.2008] "Die Terrorangst wird bewusst hochgespielt" - Behoerden malen vor den Spielen den Teufel an die Wand: Kleine Zeitung. Auch: SPIEGEL, Presse, Xianzai, Dolomiten, Laola (mit bizarrem Bild: Screenshot).

[10.7.2008] "Celestial treat for stargazers" - this eclipse is the physical witness of the birth of Shaaban Islamic month: Gulf Daily News. Auch: Telegraph.

[9.7.2008] "Angst vor Terror" - an Flughaefen der Unruheregionen Tibet und Xinjiang sollen die Sicherheitsvorkehrungen verstaerkt werden: Mannheimer Morgen. Auch: HNP.

[9.7.2008] "Fuenf mutmassliche Extremisten in China erschossen" - in der Region Xinjiang: Die Presse. Auch: BBC, N-TV, SPIEGEL, China.org.

[8.7.2008] "Dicke Luft in China" - Peking ein Monat vor den Olympischen Spielen: Sueddeutsche. Auch: Welt, BBC, Berliner Zeitung.

[8.7.2008] "China: Neue Erdstöße sind wahrscheinlich" - nach dem großen Beben im Mai 2008 Risikopotenzial: Bild der Wissenschaft.

[8.7.2008] "Machtvolles Volk, machtlose Polizei" - das amerikanische State Department gab wegen der Anschlagsgefahr sogar eine Reisewarnung für China heraus: FAZ. Was das State Dept. konkret sagt: "potentially dangerous events can occur in the run-up to the Olympics".

[6.7.2008] "Totally enthralled" - chasing eclipses around the world: Boston Globe.

[5.7.2008] "Spiele bremsen Touristik-Boom" - China wird im Olympiajahr von Touristen gemieden: Stern.

[3.7.2008] "Noch 37 Tage: No Visa Policy" - die chinesische Visums-Politik ist vor allem vom Wunsch gepraegt, zu den olympischen Spielen bloss keine Auslaender im Land zu haben: FTD Blog.

[2.7.2008] "Call for lights out to study sun eclipse" - a team of 50 local astronomy fans recruited from [Shanghai] observatory's Website will head to Xinjiang on July 28: Shanghai Daily, CRI.

[1.7.2008] "Total Solar Eclipse 2008 From Xinjiang Province in Northwestern China Live @ the Exploratorium", will webcast the eclipse live to the world: Press Release, Webseite, CNet, Wired.

[26.6.2008] "Respiratory Illness, Dog Bites Among Top Concerns For Travelers to China" - Study Provides Insight to Help Olympics Travelers Prepare for Trip: Centers for Disease Control Press Release.

[20.6.2008] "Die asiatischen Airlines sind alle ins Trudeln geraten" - besonders Air China wurde schwer gebeutelt: Airline-Bewertungen (mehr).

[19.6.2008] "Bio-Pestizid fuer Xinjiang-Gras" - Kampf zwischen Grashuepfern und rosa Staren: China.org.

[17.-19.6.2008] "Fackellauf im Land der Uiguren" - die olympische Flamme ist in der chinesischen Moslem-Provinz Xinjiang angekommen: ZEIT (frueher, mehr), Bund, Presse, Kleine Zeitung.

[16.6.2008] "Olymische Fackel früher als erwartet in Tibet" - mit scharfen Sicherheitsvorkehrungen bereiteten sich die chinesischen Behörden unterdessen auf die nächste Etappe durch die vorwiegend von muslimischen Uiguren bewohnte westliche Provinz Xinjiang vor: ZEIT.

[14.6.2008] "Steinmeier: Chinas Gesellschaft im Wandel" - bei etwaigen Visa-Schwierigkeiten sei vereinbart worden, unmittelbar mit der chinesischen Botschaft in Berlin Kontakt aufzunehmen: FTD. Auch: Discovery Blogs.

[8.6.2008] "Kellerzimmer als Sicherheitsrisiko" - zwei Monate vor dem Beginn der Olympischen Spiele in Peking steht die Stadt ganz im Zeichen von Sicherheitsmaßnahmen: FAZ.

[7.6.2008] "Wenn ein Han mit einer Miao" - wie leben die Minderheiten in China? FAZ.

[4.6.2008] "Siemens-Mitarbeiter im Pekinger Bordell" - "Touristen etwa muessen bei der Beantragung eines Visums jeden Stopp ihrer Reiseroute nachweisen und fuer die Uebernachtung einen Hotelnachweis vorlegen": Wirtschaftswoche.

[30.5.2008] "Keine strikte Visa-Politik der chinesischen Regierung" - China habe aus Sicherheitsgruenden fuer die Olympischen Spiele gemaess den chinesischen Gesetzen einige angemessene Veraenderungen vorgenommen: China.org.

[29.5.2008] "Sonnenfinsternis: Auslaendische Touristen zum 1. August in Nowosibirsk willkommen" - werden in Nowosibirsk mehr als 3000 auslaendische Touristen erwartet: Novosti.

[29.5.2008] "Air Berlin stellt «alles auf den Prüfstand»" - absolut unzufrieden sei das Unternehmen mit den Strecken nach China: Press Release, FTD.

[28.5.2008] "Ansturm der Touristen bleibt aus" - fuer die Zeit waehrend den Olympischen Spielen sind in China noch viele Zimmer ungebucht: Focus.

[21.5.2008] "Moderate earthquake hits Xinjiang" - no casualties have been reported: Shanghai Daily.

[13.5.2008] "Guardian, NYTimes, etc: The deadly tectonics of China's huge earthquake" - its likely geophysical cause: Knight Science Journalism Tracker, ABC Blog.

[11.5.2008] "Xinjiang befindet sich in bester Phase seiner Entwicklung" - sagte der stellvertretende Gouverneur: China.org. Dagegen: Wiesbadener Kurier ...

[7.5.2008] "Paralysing virus strikes China ahead of Olympics" - an outbreak of the deadly enterovirus 71 in the city of Fuyang, south of the capital: Nature und Sci. Am. Blogs.

[5.5.2008] "Die wunderbaren Menschen von Xinjiang" - Lisa Carducci's unuebliche Sicht der chinesischen Realitaet hinterlaesst unvergessliche Eindruecke: China.org; Ostsee-Zeitung.

[3.5.2008] "Pragmatische Malocher mit grossem Appetit" - Chinas Kontrollwahn ist Fakt [...]. Abseits des Staatsapparats geht es aber pragmatisch zu: Euro am Sonntag.

[29.4.2008] "Das Land der Uiguren ist ein Spiegel Tibets" - Interview mit Rebiya Kadeer: Epoch Times; Stern, AOL, ARD.

[27.4.2008] "Wie China Jugendliche und Auslaender schikaniert" - Auslaender bekommen immer schwerer ein Visum, Jugendliche werden schikaniert: Welt (mehr), WiWo Blog; GFP, Deutsche Welle.

[21.4.2008] "Zypries zeigt Verstaendnis fuer Chinas Visaverschaerfungen" - es geht nur darum, dass man verwaltungsmaessig ordentlich prueft, ob alle Voraussetzungen da sind: SPIEGEL, FTD + das AA dazu.

[19.4.2008] "China erschwert Visa-Vergabe an Geschaefsleute" - Peking verwies dabei auf die Aushebung einer mutmasslichen Terrorgruppe von muslimischen Uiguren im Januar in Nordwestchina und einem geplanten Brandanschlag auf ein chinesisches Flugzeug im Maerz: SPIEGEL. Auch: ThornTree Thread, TAZ.

[17.4.2008] "Observations of IntraDay Variable sources with the Effelsberg and Urumqi Radio Telescopes" - the Urumqi antenna, although relatively small in diameter, is well suitable for IDV experiments: Paper von Marchili et al.

[12.4.2008] "Islamisten in China" - die chinesische Regierung meldet die Zerschlagung zweier Terror-Gruppen aus Xinjiang: FAZ.

[11.4.2008] "Weitere Dinosaurier-Spuren in Turpan entdeckt" - die groessten, die bislang in China gefunden wurden: China.org.

[1.4.2008] "China bestaetigt Demonstrationen in Xinjiang" - zu den Protesten sei es am 23. Maerz auf einem Markt in Hotan gekommen, hiess es am Dienstag auf der Website der Regierung von Hotan: NZZ. Auch: New York Times, Deutsche Welle, Berliner Umschau.

[26.3.2008] "Flight changes announced after foiled terrorist plot" - flights that originally stop at Urumqi will stop somewhere else, and a number of flights inside that region will be cancelled, indefinitely: China Jo.

[21.3.2008] "Residents moved to safety after Xinjiang earthquake" - an earthquake measuring 7.3 on the Richter scale has forced the Xinjiang government to move 144 families: Shanghai Daily.

[9.3.2008] "Report: China thwarts terrorist attacks" - der Sezessionisten in Xinjiang: CNN, Standard, MyTelegraph, DPA.

[31.1.2008] "China 'will stop the rain' for Olympics" - aber auch fuer die beiden SoFi? :-) News.com.au, IO9.

[6.1.2008] "Why We Travel" - Ordering food on the train to Kashgar, Xinjiang Province: New York Times.

[5.1.2008] "Five adventure trips for 2008" - Chinese eclipse: Guardian. Bird flu hits northwestern China's Turpan: Xinhua.

[3.1.2008] "A Robot Paraconical Pendulum" - we look forward to observing during the solar eclipse of 1 August, when maybe we will see an Allais effect: YouTube.

[2.1.2008] "Part 5: Dunhuang to Urumqi": CNN.

[30.12.2008] "Dates for a great '08" - Aug. 1: The sun disappears! (Long Beach) Press Telegram.

[7.12.2007] "Beschaedigungen an historischer Staette durch Touristen" - Zerstoerung der Ueberreste des historischen Koenigreichs Loulan (Kroraina) in der Autonomen Uigurischen Region Xinjian: China.org.cn.

[13.8.2007] "Sky Gazers to See Two Total Solar Eclipses": Xinhua.

[17.7.2007] "Solar eclipse chasers already calling Nunavut": CBC News. Chinesen wollen Regen mit Chemie verhindern: Welt.

[29.6.2007] "2008.08.01 Total Solar Eclipse in Xinjiang, China - Updated": SingAstro.

[4.6.2007] "A Full Eclipse: Coming to Xinjiang": China Expat.

[29.1.2007] "Mongolia | 1997 | 2008 | Total Solar Eclipse": Don Croner's WWW.


Harte Aussagen zum besten Ort

From: "Jay Anderson"
Date: Wed, 13 Sep 2006 09:30:18 -0500
Source: SEML Posting

Aram Kaprielian (from TravelQuest) and I scouted the area [East of Hami] in late July/early August.

The road to Yiwu is a paved all-weather road in excellent condition. Any tourist bus could make the climb to the eclipse site without any trouble - it takes about 3 hours in a small bus and a little longer in a 50-passenger bus. Yiwu is a modern town with six-story apartments in garish colours of pink and yellow - a very pleasant town in fact, with a good-quality hotel (complete with the biggest petrified trees I have ever seen). It is ringed by snow-capped mountains in the west with spectacular hanging glaciers, and smaller mountains in the east. The high plateau on which Yiwu sits is a marvelous grassland, with a salt lake, an area of high (40-m) sand dunes and small dairy farms (among others). The road to Yiwu has a 40-km section of switchback highway as it climbs up the mountain from Hami - this gorge is "gorgeous" - any group heading in this direction will find many opportunities for photos. The folks from Hami use the area as a bit of a cool-weather get-away.

The actual centreline is in a gorge to the east of Yiwu. At the centre line, the gorge is fairly wide, but there isn't a lot of room on each side of the road for a large group and the horizons are blocked by the mountains/hills and the trees lining the fields. The road from Yiwu to the centre is paved, but not in quite as good shape as the road from Hami to Yiwu. You can go past the gorge (to the north side of the centre line) where you will find a large and flat gravelly plain - not very pretty, but certainly open. If you pull up short of the centreline - on the south side (west actually), you will find a small farm village - dusty and brown with small buildings and pleasant garden compounds around each house. Setting up here will lose a couple of seconds of totality; setting up on the gravelly plain will lose a few more seconds. Setting up in Yiwu will cost you 3 seconds. Aram and I put a red paint mark on the road marking the centre line.

The mountain peaks generate convective clouds whenever atmospheric conditions and wind directions are right. This makes the eclipse track through the mountains cloudier than at Hami - which is very sunny if you take a look at the weather statistics on my web page (www.eclipser.ca). In spite of this, the Hami mountains are still the best area to visit for the eclipse. During our three days in Hami, we had one cloudy day (with rainshowers in the mountains), and two sunny days with patchy cumulus clouds in the mountains. The amount and position of the cumulus will depend on the weather on eclipse day and cannot be predicted in advance, but small cumulus clouds can be expected to dissipate during the eclipse cooling. The haziness endemic throughout most of China is not very evident at Hami, and the high mountains have very clean air - the haze is barely detectable.

Hami is known for its melons, and the eclipse comes during the time that they have their melon festival. Good eating for those of you who have a fondness for the fruit.


From: "Jay Anderson"
Date: Thu, 13 Apr 2006 18:18:15 -0500
Source: SEML Posting

The tan areas have 30% or less average cloud amount. The areas in the south (over the Himalayas) has a mean cloud cover over 60%. Strictly speaking this is not the "chance of clouds", but it's close enough. You should examine all of the data - the cloud cover maps are from satellite observations, the data tables are from surface observations. The surface obs match the satellite measurements quite closely. The graph of cloudiness along the centre line comes from the satellite data.

The 2008 eclipse has a very small area in northern China and along the Mongolian border where the cloud cover is low - the tan regions on the chart. This area is an extension of the Gobi Desert. To the north, over the Altai Mountains, cloud cover rises again, and then drops toward Novosibirsk. The pattern is quite clear on the graph.

Jay


From: "Jay Anderson"
Date: Tue, 11 Apr 2006 08:33:33 -0500
Source: personal mail

Preliminary data for 2008, sufficient to make a decision about destination, are on my web page. I have newer data and will post it shortly. Hami, in northern China, is the best area. Russia, in the region south of Novosibirsk, but north of the Altai Mountains, is next. Spitzbergen Island is not a good clear-sky destination (though a spectacular place in its own right).

Northern China is better than elsewhere because it it too far north to participate in the monsoon flow that covers most of the rest of China and because the moist southerly flow from the monsoon region is blocked by a band of low hills. It is protected from northern weather systems by the Altai Mountains. The mountains themselves are cloudier than the regions on either side.


Diskussion über den besten Ort (latest topic first)

From: "Eclipse-Reisen.de"
Date: Tue, 16 May 2006 20:57:29 +0200
Subject: Flüge nach Ürümci

Hallo Herr Fischer,

prinzipiell gibt es mindestens 4 Möglichkeiten, um nach Ürümqi zu kommen:
- über Peking
- über Moskau (u.U. mit weiterem Umsteigen in Novosibirsk)
- über Novosibirsk
- über Almaty

Die günstigsten Tarife beginnen so bei EUR 750,- (inkl. Taxes und Gebühren), allerdings waren die in 2006 für die gewünschten Daten nicht mehr verfügbar. Buchbar war z.B. noch die Verbindung Frankfurt - Novosibirsk Ürümqi und zurück (30.07.06 - 11.08.2006) mit 1 Übernachtung in Novosibirsk auf dem Hinflug und 3 Übernachtungen auf dem Rückflug. Preis ca. EUR 1000,-. Die Flüge, die wir neulich für den Erkundungstrip im Oktober 2006 rausgesucht hatten, liegen übrigens zwischen etwa EUR 770,- und EUR 830,-. Im Hinblick auf etwaige Verteuerungen des Flugbenzins ist es sicherlich realistisch, für Sommer 2008 mit einem Flugbudget von EUR 800,- bis EUR 900,- zu kalkulieren. Ob ein Charter nach Novosibirsk oder Ürümqi preiswerter wird, sei dahingestellt; zumindest wäre es bequemer, weil kein Umsteigen erforderlich wird. Da ja noch Zeit genug ist, schlage ich vor, dass wir im September, wenn die 2007er-Flüge buchbar sind, eine ausführlichere Recherche machen - eine Erinnerungsmail so Mitte September ist natürlich willkommen :-)

Mit freundlichen Grüßen / Best regards

Angela Weidenbach & Stefan Krause


From: "Jay Anderson"
From: "Jay Anderson"
From: Mike Simmons
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2006 08:38:59 -0500
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2006 12:26:28 -0500
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2006 10:36:25 -0700

Hi John:

For 2008 pollution is not likely to be a problem as most chasers will head for the more remote parts of China. In Ulaanbaatar, the source of pollution is the city's power generation plant in the centre of town.

2009 presents more of a challenge. Vertical visibility is usually less affected by pollution than horizontal visibility. During the summer day, pollution has a distinct diurnal variation, being heaviest in the morning inversion and decreasing through the daylight hours as the smoke and haze is distributed through a deeper layer of the atmosphere. It hasn't gone away, it's just dispersed.

For the most part, pollution is captured in the climatological records by the visibility statistics, which will be a part of the eventual climate study when it is published by NASA. Having said that, the easiest way to avoid heavy pollution is to locate your observing site away from the larger cities, or on the coastline where onshore winds carry the cleaner ocean skies overtop of you (provided the winds are onshore winds).

I am certainly examining the possibility of providing a chart or map of transparency over China, if the final result shows that there will be a significant impact. Most satellite-derived measures show only the loading of the higher parts of the atmosphere (witness the charts provided for the last eclipse) and may not be too relevant for the lower levels in the 2009 eclipse.

Jay

China is pretty convectively unstable in the monsoon season and, except on the coast, an inversion would be unusual. If one were to form, I suspect it would be full of cloud and pollution would not be your main concern. Inversions at this time of year are most likely associated with fronts (ignoring the overnight inversions). Valley and basin inversions will erode during the day - the 2008 eclipse comes pretty late. For 2009, the problem may be more interesting, as the eclipse is earlier in the day. However, smog in a valley is relatively easy to avoid.

Jay

Perfect. Thanks, Jay. I look forward to the maps and other data gifts you'll be providing us.

Mike


From: "Jay Anderson"
From: Geert Barentsen
From: "Jay Anderson"
Date: Thu, 13 Apr 2006 11:16:17 -0500
Date: Fri, 14 Apr 2006 14:49:13 +0200
Date: Fri, 14 Apr 2006 08:56:41 -0500

Geert:

By using reanalysis data (data from a computer model of the clouds and weather), you have a rather smoothed cloud cover map that includes some pretty significant biases. The biggest one is the treatment of low level cloudiness - computer models have difficulty in depicting the lowest layers of the atmosphere.

To see an example of this, you need only look at the area around Spitzbergen Island. Your maps show a mean cloudiness of 30-40%. This is one of the cloudiest areas in the world, so much so that early polar explorers commented on it on many occasions. The correct value for the area should be around 80-90%, a figure verified by surface-based observations. It is mostly low level cloud, and so is probably poorly represented in the comupter models (though your maps show that the cloud is indeed mostly low level; they just don't have the quantity correct) You have a large area of near-zero cloudiness across the Mediterranean, and while it's a pretty sunny area, zero cloud is a bit of a stetch (it should be about 20% or thereabouts). Your cloud over India does not match the monsoon patterns - the heaviest cloud should be on the eastern not the western side of India.

Other areas look OK in position, but the cloud amount is too low. The "sunny" area southwest of Mongolia is matched by observations, but instead of being 10-20% as shown on your maps, it should be 30-40%.

So, be careful in the interpretation of the data. The numerical data are a representation of the climate, not an actual measurement of it. The cloud cover charts on my web page are measurements, and while they depend on the algorithms used to extract the signal from the satellite images, they are much more reliable than the computer solutions. It is also worth mention algorithms used to extract the signal from the satellite images, they are much more reliable than the computer solutions. It is also worth mention that the cloud maps on my web page are low-resolution averages - the ones I use for specific eclipses have a higher resolution.

Jay Anderson

Hi Jay,

Thanks a ton for your feedback. I guess the model-based data is better suited for pressure, winds, etc? Having said that, I have often been positively impressed by west-european cloud forecasts from NCEP's GFS model.

Anyway, it shows how dangerous it is to interpret scientific graphs that have no indication of accuracy. Luckily I was not planning a trip to Spitzbergen. :-)

Geert

Geert:

I was a little surprised that there were such large differences in the model and the measured cloudiness too. It suggests that the algorithms designed to "make" clouds in the model formulation may be different between day-to-day use and archival use. Keep in mind that the measured clouds are also subject to biases, but that should apply mostly over northern regions (where it is not always easy to distinguish cloud from snow), rather than lower latitudes.

In any event, the model information can be used, with caution, for relative differences rather than absolute differences. It is also best for upper level features - winds, high level clouds, and so on.

Jay