Hi to everyone interested in experiencing the 2001 Leonids!<p>


There are already 22 subscribers on this list that was initiated at 
the IMC in Romania last month, but not one message has been posted so
far. Well, as it was I who had the idea of such a list, I'd like to
start the discussion now, by summarizing the facts as I know them
and by providing some important links:<p>

<hr>
<a href=http://www.arm.ac.uk/leonid/dust2001.html>
http://www.arm.ac.uk/leonid/dust2001.html</a> - here are the dust trails  
from comet Tempel-Tuttle that the Earth will cross in 2001. Of most
interest is the trail from 1866 (4 revolutions old) that we will
fly straight through.
<hr>
<a href=http://www.atnf.csiro.au/asa_www/images/2001bsl.gif>
http://www.atnf.csiro.au/asa_www/images/2001bsl.gif</a> - a map of the Earth
as seen from the approaching meteoroids during that encounter, taken from
<a href=http://www.atnf.csiro.au/asa_www/info_sheets/leonids.html>
http://www.atnf.csiro.au/asa_www/info_sheets/leonids.html</a> (and at
<a href=http://www.astro.uni-bonn.de/~dfischer/leoniden.html>
http://www.astro.uni-bonn.de/~dfischer/leoniden.html</a> you find all the
diagrams compiled into one - German - article).
<hr>
<a href=http://www.astro.uni-bonn.de/~dfischer/leo99/story.html>
http://www.astro.uni-bonn.de/~dfischer/leo99/story.html</a> - an account of
what the 1999 Leonids storm was like when observed under perfect conditions
and at the "perfect" spot on Earth. The maximum ZHR reached was about 5000,
and the 2001 event *could* be either better or worse than that...
<hr>
<a href=http://www.ras.org.uk/press/pn99-35.htm>
http://www.ras.org.uk/press/pn99-35.htm</a> - the Royal Astronomical Society
hailing the perfect prediction of the meteor storm's peak time.
<hr>
<a href=http://www.astro.uni-bonn.de/~dfischer/mirror/186.html>
http://www.astro.uni-bonn.de/~dfischer/mirror/186.html</a> (2nd article) - a
report from the big Leonids conference in Tel Aviv in April.
<hr><p>

At this time, i.e. before the 2000 Leonids, the predictions for the ZHR
in 2001 are still very volatile, but there is general agreement that we
do now understand how to get the peak *times* right. 2001bsl.gif thus is
the key to success: You want to be about 1 hour west of the left-most
dawn line, to experience the full peak in dark skies, and you want to be
in an area with a high radiant, i.e. as close to the center of the
Earth's disk in this view as possible.<p>

Obviously the (geometrically) ideal place would be very wet this time,
but there are plenty of candidates with solid ground. The next-most
important parameters are the weather statistics and the infrastructure.
What follows are some insights and rumors gathered during the last few
months - please add your own knowledge!<p>

<UL>

<LI> Radiant elevation 60 degrees: Only a few islands in the Pacific. Would
Guam be an option? How about the taifun season - isn't it peaking there
around November? Are ship-, sea-plane- or plane-based expeditions viable,
to be able to outrun bad weather and go to whereever necessary?

<LI> Radiant elevation 50 degrees: Kamchatka - nice volcanoes but otherwise
a bit cool... Japan - at the IMC we heard that the chances for clear skies
are very slim in November. Good infrastructure might allow for energetic
cloud-hole chasing, though. How bad is light pollution in the countryside?

<LI> Radiant elevation 40 degrees: Eastern China, Korea - lots of landmass to
chose from, infrastructure and local support might be available (Dutch
astronomers were there in 1998!). How bad is the air pollution? What are
the weather statistics? Irian Jaya - I've been told there might be areas
with good weather, but it's a rugged place, sometimes with hostile natives...

<LI> Radiant elevation 35 degrees: Even more choice of China as well as
Eastern Siberia. Taiwan - there are lots of helpful astronomers there.
Philippines - rumors mention an area of good weather in northern Luzon.
Australia - some sections of the Northern Territory would offer moderately
easy travel, but this is the tropical part of Australia. What's the
weather there like in November?

<LI> Radiant elevation 30 degrees and lower: More and more of China,
Eastern Russia, Mongolia (where another expedition went in 1998; see
<a href=http://www.astro.uni-bonn.de/~dfischer/leo98/trip.html>
http://www.astro.uni-bonn.de/~dfischer/leo98/trip.html</a> for the chilling
details), Indochina and Australia are available if you are willing to
sacrifice radiant elevation.
</UL>

At a first brainstorming session about those choices at a meteor meeting
in Germany (see <a href=http://www.astro.uni-bonn.de/~dfischer/mirror/182.html>
http://www.astro.uni-bonn.de/~dfischer/mirror/182.html</a>
story 3) there was talk about fielding to expeditions, one to Mongolia
(where the climatic outlook is cold but clear) and another one to
Australia, but since then the opinions have blurred. Suggestions welcome!<p>


Daniel Fischer, AKM, Germany